Throughout the week, US officials had urged Israel not to retaliate for Iran’s unprecedented attack five days prior, when hundreds of missiles and drones were fired from inside Iran at Israel. US intelligence has long assessed that neither Iran nor Israel has any appetite for an outright war. Iranian officials have stated publicly that Iran’s policy toward Israel has changed. Then, on April 1, an Israeli strike on what Iran claims was an embassy in Syria killed seven officials, including two senior Iranian commanders. “Israel and Iran are going to be starting higher on the escalatory ladder for every future moment of conflict and that is incredibly dangerous,” said Panikoff.

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